Why 'attribution science' matters to our weather, El Niño, and climate
As the weather gets wacky, let's define the burgeoning practice of attribution science.
As the weather gets wacky, let's define the burgeoning practice of attribution science.
Scientists understood the mechanics of climate change, the greenhouse effect, in the 1800s. Certain gases in the atmosphere trap heat on our planet like, well, a greenhouse. It's not new.
But attribution science is relatively new. It has developed in the last few decades as a field of science that estimates how much climate change increased the likelihood, frequency, or intensity of certain incidents like heatwaves and wildfires.
Early in my career, scientist sources would hesitate to connect extreme weather events to climate change. Since the 1990s, scholars have developed ways to assess the impact of humans on our weather and climate.
I thought it would be a good time to share some definitions as St. Cloud and the Twin Cities set records with 90-degree-heat the second weekend of October, and we're approaching winter with a super El Niño.
Jen Zettel-Vandenhouten
What's the difference between climate and weather?
Weather has a sorter time frame. It refers to what happens in the atmosphere within hours, days, or weeks. Climate refers to patterns in the atmosphere over years, decades, or even longer, according to a primer from SciLine.
What's extreme weather?
Attribution science is also referred to as extreme event attribution or attribution of extreme weather events. There's no shared definition of extreme weather so studies have to be clear about their use of the term. Generally it refers to weather that's especially severe compared to averages or normal patterns over a long period of time.
How is attribution science useful?
These studies can provide "new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events," according to a brief from the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate.
There is debate on whether these studies will be effective in climate-related court cases, such as those against fossil fuel companies or utilities. Interest groups have moved to discredit this field of research.
How does it work?
After an extreme event, teams of scientists move quickly to calculate the probability and influence of many factors. Advances in computing have made it faster to run these models.
One example reported by Bloomberg News: "When Hurricane Harvey hit Texas in 2017, its rainfall was 15% more intense and about three times more likely to occur."
The correlation between human-caused climate change and heat waves is relatively clear in the data. Research shows a connection between the intensity of hurricanes and climate change, but there hasn't been a direct increase in the frequency of hurricanes.
What about El Niño?
El Niño is a natural phenomenon tied to warmer temperatures in the Pacific Ocean at the equator with global impacts on trade winds and weather. Human-caused climate change is making it more intense.
"El Niños are more than 36% stronger than they were before the industrial age began in the mid 1800s, with a 16% jump in just the last 40 years showing that the increase is accelerating," according to Associated Press reporting on a study in the journal Science.
El Niño years typically bring milder winters and less-than-average snow to Minnesota, according to the DNR. "Given the reasonable potential for an unprecedented El Niño event in 2026-27, the observed and recorded past may not fully encapsulate what different regions around the world can anticipate."
Resources and stories
- SciLine: Attribution science basics: climate change and extreme weather
- Associated Press: As super El Niño strengthens, study suggests that climate change is intensifying El Niños
- Minnesota DNR: El Niño" is Coming. What Might That Mean for Minnesota's Weather?
- New York Times: A Supreme Court Battle Over Climate Change Begins
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